Wednesday, December 8, 2010

Wednesday Bulls Eye


My system worked flawlessly today. Also there's some missed opportunites. Market seemed highly bullish so far. Experts confused with their predicitons, but my system prevailed plus little adjustment prevailed.

Let's see this scenario:
Assumed you had 50% Winning Ratio System with 2:1 Risk Reward Ratio. Then you took max 10 trades every day if you losed and stopped trading if you had 2 winning streaks. The scenario if you lose all 10 trades result 100 pips losses, but this chance are very small. Now let's say you risk 0.5% per trade. 10 trades means 5% losses for the day. Then let's say on average, 10 trades means 50 pips winning daily. You only need to stop after gaining 40 pips. How the result may came after long term? Profit almost in daily basis. Now system with 50% winning and 2:1 RR is not very shabby. Most of novice want a 80%-90% winning ratio. Every system in this world can modified to higher winning ratio sacrificed the risk-reward ratio, or reduced the amount of signal produced. The easiest way surprisingly was a not too high winning ratio like 50%. This system make you realized, there're 50% chance it won't work. Unlike the 80% winning ratio, when you losed 3 times in a row, you may feel betrayand ruined your discipline. It will happened sometimes. Accept the probability and lived with it. Sometimes imperfection bring better result.

No comments:

Post a Comment